June 2017

1. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND,  AT REFERENCE YEAR 2010 PRICES
% change on previous year          
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
GDP at market prices 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.4
Imports of goods and services 3.1 2.5 2.7 2.3 2.1
Exports of goods and services                                  2.0 0.5 3.9 3.4 2.9
Private consumption 1.5 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.2
Public consumption 0.1 0.5 –0.2 0.1 –0.2
Private fixed investment 2.6 6.1 5.2 3.0 2.8
Public fixed investment –4.9 1.4 2.4 0.2 –0.1
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

2. CONTRIBUTIONS TO GROWTH1
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
GDP, % change 0.3 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.4
Net exports –0.4 –0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3
Domestic demand excl. inventory change 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.3 1.1
of which Consumption 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6
Investment 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.5
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy –0.3 –0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
1 Bank of Finland calculations. Annual growth rates using the previous year's GDP shares at current prices as weights.
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

3. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, PRICE DEFLATORS
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
GDP at market prices 112.0 112.9 113.5 115.0 116.5
  1.7 0.8 0.6 1.2 1.4
Imports of goods and services 100.9 99.0 101.9 104.6 107.0
  –3.7 –1.8 2.9 2.6 2.2
Exports of goods and services                                  103.0 100.5 102.7 105.1 107.1
  –1.1 –2.4 2.2 2.3 1.9
Private consumption 110.6 111.3 112.2 113.6 115.3
  0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5
Public consumption 113.1 114.3 114.1 115.5 116.9
  0.7 1.0 –0.1 1.2 1.2
Private fixed investment 109.5 111.4 113.8 115.9 117.8
  0.5 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.7
Public fixed investment 110.2 110.7 112.6 114.1 117.3
  0.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 2.8
Terms of trade (goods and services) 102.1 101.5 100.7 100.4 100.1
  2.8 –0.6 –0.7 –0.3 –0.3
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

4. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, AT CURRENT PRICES  
EUR million and % change on previous year     
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
GDP at market prices 209,511 214,062 219,782 226,207 232,535
  2.0 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.8
Imports of goods and services 77,810 78,262 82,738 86,868 90,680
  –0.7 0.6 5.7 5.0 4.4
Total supply 287,321 292,324 302,520 313,075 323,216
  1.2 1.7 3.5 3.5 3.2
Exports of goods and services                                  77,186 75,677 80,386 85,094 89,253
  0.9 –2.0 6.2 5.9 4.9
Consumption 166,847 170,671 173,056 176,834 180,652
  1.5 2.3 1.4 2.2 2.2
Private 115,761 118,811 121,381 124,454 127,795
  1.9 2.6 2.2 2.5 2.7
Public                                                      51,086 51,860 51,676 52,380 52,857
  0.7 1.5 –0.4 1.4 0.9
Fixed investment                                                    42,867 45,792 48,930 50,999 53,163
  1.5 6.8 6.9 4.2 4.2
Private 34,694 37,467 40,258 42,196 44,120
  3.1 8.0 7.4 4.8 4.6
Public                                                      8,173 8,325 8,672 8,803 9,043
  –4.9 1.9 4.2 1.5 2.7
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy 421 184 148 148 148
% of previous year's total demand –0.1 –0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total demand 287,321 292,324 302,520 313,075 323,216
  1.2 1.7 3.5 3.5 3.2
Total domestic demand 210,135 216,647 222,134 227,981 233,963
  1.3 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.6
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

5. BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
% of GDP at current prices          
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
GDP at market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Imports of goods and services 37.1 36.6 37.6 38.4 39.0
Exports of goods and services                                  36.8 35.4 36.6 37.6 38.4
Consumption 79.6 79.7 78.7 78.2 77.7
Private 55.3 55.5 55.2 55.0 55.0
Public 24.4 24.2 23.5 23.2 22.7
Fixed investment 20.5 21.4 22.3 22.5 22.9
Private 16.6 17.5 18.3 18.7 19.0
Public 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
Inventory change + statistical discrepancy, 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total demand 137.1 136.6 137.6 138.4 139.0
Total domestic demand 100.3 101.2 101.1 100.8 100.6
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

6. PRICES     
Index 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year     
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
Harmonised index of consumer prices, 2005=100 100.0 100.4 101.2 102.2 103.4
  –0.2 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3
Consumer price index, 2005=100 119.3 119.7 120.4 121.5 123.2
  –0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4
Private consumption deflator                                          110.6 111.3 112.2 113.6 115.3
  0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.5
Private investment deflator 109.5 111.4 113.8 115.9 117.8
  0.5 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.7
Exports of goods and services deflator 103.0 100.5 102.7 105.1 107.1
  –1.1 –2.4 2.2 2.3 1.9
Imports of goods and services deflator 100.9 99.0 101.9 104.6 107.0
  –3.7 –1.8 2.9 2.6 2.2
Value–added deflators                                                       
Value–added, gross at basic prices                                        111.8 112.7 113.2 114.5 115.9
  1.8 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.3
Private sector 110.9 111.8 112.4 113.7 115.1
  2.0 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.3
Public sector 115.5 116.2 116.4 117.8 119.2
  1.1 0.6 0.2 1.2 1.2
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

7. WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY     
% change on previous year          
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
Whole economy          
Index of wage and salary earnings 1.4 1.2 0.7 1.5 1.8
Compensation per employee 1.6 1.1 –0.3 1.1 1.4
Unit labour costs 0.9 0.1 –1.8 0.2 0.5
Labour productivity per employed person 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

8. LABOUR MARKET     
1,000 persons and % change on previous year
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
Labour force survey (15–74-year-olds)          
Employed persons 2,437 2,448 2,461 2,477 2,489
  –0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5
Unemployed persons 252 236 230 222 220
  8.7 –6.4 –2.4 –3.4 –1.1
Labour force 2,690 2,683 2,691 2,700 2,709
  0.4 –0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Working–age population (15–64-year-olds) 3,476 3,463 3,453 3,445 3,438
  –0.4 –0.4 –0.3 –0.2 –0.2
Labour force participation rate, %                                                      65.6 65.3 65.3 65.3 65.4
Unemployment rate, % 9.4 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.1
Employment rate (15–64-year-olds), % 68.1 68.7 69.3 69.9 70.3
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

9. GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURE, BALANCE AND DEBT
% OF GDP     
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
General government revenue 54.2 54.2 52.8 52.3 51.8
General government expenditure 57.0 56.1 55.2 54.5 53.9
General government primary expenditure 55.8 55.1 54.2 53.5 53.0
General government interest expenditure 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9
General government net lending –2.7 –1.9 –2.4 –2.2 –2.0
Central government –3.0 –2.7 –2.8 –2.4 –1.9
Local government –0.6 –0.5 –0.6 –0.6 –0.6
Social security funds 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.5
General government primary balance –1.6 –0.9 –1.5 –1.3 –1.1
General government debt (EDP) 63.7 63.6 65.1 66.1 66.8
Central government debt 47.6 47.8 49.3 50.2 50.7
Tax ratio 44.0 44.1 43.2 42.8 42.6
Source: Bank  of Finland.     

 

10. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS     
EUR million     
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
Exports of goods and services (SNA) 77,186 75,677 80,386 85,094 89,253
Imports of goods and services (SNA) 77,810 78,262 82,738 86,868 90,680
Goods and services account (SNA) –624 –2,585 –2,352 –1,774 –1,427
% of GDP –0.3 –1.2 –1.1 –0.8 –0.6
Investment income and other items, net (+ statistical discrepancy) 1,701 2,246 1,774 1,760 1,746
Current transfers, net –2,321 –1,951 –2,007 –2,073 –2,139
Current account, net –1,244 –2,290 –2,585 –2,087 –1,820
Net lending, % of GDP          
Private sector 2.1 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3
Public sector –2.7 –1.9 –2.5 –2.2 –2.0
Current account, % of GDP –0.6 –1.1 –1.2 –0.9 –0.8
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

11. INTEREST RATES     
%     
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
3-month Euribor1 0.0 –0.3 –0.3 –0.2 0.0
Average interest rate on new loan drawdowns2 2.1 1.9 1.8  1.9  2.0 
Average interest rate on the stock of loans2 1.6 1.5 1.4  1.4  1.5 
Average interest rate on the stock of deposits3 0.3 0.2 0.1  0.1  0.2 
Yield on Finnish 10-year government bonds1 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.          
2 Finnish credit institutions’ loans to households and non-financial corporations (excl. overdrafts, credit card credits and repurchase agreements).
3 Finnish credit institutions’ deposits from households and non-financial corporations.      
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

12. INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT     
The Eurosystem staff projections          
  2015 2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
GDP, % change on previous year          
World 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.5
USA 2.6 1.6 2.2 2.5 2.3
Euro area 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.8  1.7 
Japan 0.6 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.6
Imports, % change on previous year          
World 1.9 1.5 4.5 3.9 4.0
USA 4.6 1.1 4.2 4.5 5.0
Euro area 6.3 4.0 5.2 4.6  4.3 
Japan 0.4 –1.7 2.5 2.6 3.1
Index, 2010 = 100, and % change on previous year          
Import volume in Finnish export markets 117.3 119.5 124.5 129.2 133.9
  –0.2 1.9 4.2 3.7 3.7
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, national currencies 109.1 106.7 111.1 113.9 116.5
  –0.3 –2.2 4.1 2.6 2.3
Export prices (excl. oil) of Finland's trading partners, in euro 106.1 101.0 106.9 109.3 111.8
  0.3 –4.8 5.8 2.3 2.3
Industrial raw materials (excl. energy), HWWA index, in US dollars 100.1 97.3 116.3 116.7 121.9
  –26.0 –2.8 19.6 0.3 4.5
Oil price, USD per barrel1 52.4 44.0 51.6 51.4 51.5
  –47.1 –15.9 17.1 –0.4 0.3
Finland's nominal competitiveness indicator1, 2 102.8 105.6 103.9 104.3 104.3
  –0.5 2.7 –1.6 0.3 0.0
US dollar value of one euro1 1.11 1.11 1.08 1.09 1.09
  –16.5 –0.2 –2.1 0.8 0.0
1 Technical assumption derived from market expectations.          
2 Broad nominal effective exchange rate.          
Source: Bank of Finland.     

 

13. Current and march 2017 forecast
  2016 2017f 2018f 2019f
GDP, % change 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.4
March 2017 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.3
Inflation (HICP), % 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3
March 2017 0.4 1.0 1.0 1.3
Current account, % of GDP –1.1 –1.2 –0.9 –0.8
March 2017 –0.8 –1.4 –0.7 –0.5
General government net lending, % of GDP –1.9 –2.4 –2.2 –2.0
March 2017 –2.0 –2.1 –1.9 –1.7
General government debt (EDP), % of GDP 63.6 65.1 66.1 66.8
March 2017 63.5 64.9 65.8 66.2
Unemployment rate, % 8.8 8.6 8.2 8.1
March 2017 8.8 8.6 8.3 8.1
Source: Bank of Finland.    

 

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