The alternative scenario attached to the forecast for the Finnish economy analyses what implications a delay in the recovery of the global economy would have for the Finnish economy.

If economic growth in the immediate years ahead does not exceed around 1.5%, achievement of the 75% employment target is unlikely.

The Bank of Finland has calculated alternative scenarios on the effects of risks to the global economy. In these scenarios, global growth weakens more abruptly than currently forecast.

How would a rapid but controlled restructuring of China’s economy or a sudden halt to debt-driven growth affect the Chinese and euro area economies?

Exports and productivity could grow faster than estimated in the Bank of Finland’s baseline forecast. However, a temporary period of faster growth would not suffice to resolve the problems with fiscal sustainability.

The economic policy measures planned by the new US administration are geared towards fuelling growth. This alternative scenario assesses the possible effects of potential infrastructure investments, tax cuts and the proposed border adjustment tax.

It will become harder to balance the public finances in the future if the global economic headwinds gather pace.

Achievement of the employment objective in the Government programme will require GDP growth of 1.3 percentage points faster than estimated in the Bank of Finland’s baseline forecast.